Does IPO Subscription Predict Listing Gains?
Mostly, yes. Across 513 mainboard and 876 SME IPOs, the more times an issue was subscribed, the higher it tended to open. Heavy demand made a loss on listing day rare, but not impossible.
The Short Answer
- Mainboard IPOs subscribed 1x to 10x opened at a median of 0%, and 55.14% closed below the issue price on listing day.
- Between 50x and 100x, 94.34% of mainboard IPOs opened above the issue price. Above 100x, 91 of 92 did.
- SME IPOs subscribed more than 200x opened at a median of 90%, the most NSE has allowed an SME listing to open at since 4 July 2024.
- The rank correlation between total subscription and the gain at open is 0.75 for mainboard IPOs and 0.69 for SME IPOs, where 1 would mean the order of subscription matched the order of listing gains exactly.
Mainboard IPOs by Subscription
| Total subscription | IPOs | Median gain at open | Median gain at close | Opened above issue | Closed below issue |
|---|
| Under 1x | 11 | -5.19% | -5.68% | 9.09% | 63.64% |
| 1x to 10x | 185 | 0% | -1% | 45.95% | 55.14% |
| 10x to 50x | 119 | +10% | +9.78% | 69.75% | 26.89% |
| 50x to 100x | 106 | +27.02% | +29.70% | 94.34% | 3.77% |
| 100x to 200x | 78 | +39.70% | +42.36% | 98.72% | 1.28% |
| Over 200x | 14 | +66.03% | +60.46% | 100% | 0% |
SME IPOs by Subscription
| Total subscription | IPOs | Median gain at open | Median gain at close | Opened above issue | Closed below issue |
|---|
| Under 1x | 2 | -9.81% | -8.62% | 50% | 50% |
| 1x to 10x | 338 | 0% | +0.16% | 48.52% | 47.63% |
| 10x to 50x | 139 | +6.08% | +8.75% | 71.22% | 26.62% |
| 50x to 100x | 83 | +16.42% | +16.88% | 78.31% | 19.28% |
| 100x to 200x | 117 | +30.95% | +33.13% | 86.32% | 8.55% |
| Over 200x | 197 | +90% | +99.44% | 96.45% | 2.03% |
Which Category Matters Most on the Mainboard
Institutional demand tracks listing gains more closely than retail demand. Rank correlation with the gain at open: QIB 0.72, non-institutional 0.68, retail 0.61. The total, which combines every category, tracks it best at 0.75.
| QIB subscription | IPOs | Median gain at open | Median gain at close | Opened above issue | Closed below issue |
|---|
| Under 1x | 1 | -15.72% | -17.31% | 0% | 100% |
| 1x to 10x | 181 | 0% | -0.96% | 41.44% | 55.25% |
| 10x to 50x | 102 | +4.38% | +5.25% | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 50x to 100x | 67 | +21.29% | +20.93% | 88.06% | 8.96% |
| 100x to 200x | 121 | +35.05% | +32.65% | 96.69% | 4.13% |
| Over 200x | 41 | +41.51% | +43.13% | 100% | 0% |
When Heavy Demand Was Not Enough
24 IPOs subscribed 100x or more opened at or below the issue price: 14 opened flat and 10 below. All but 1 were SME issues.
| IPO | Segment | Listed | Subscription | Gain at open |
|---|
| Resourceful Automobile | SME | 29 August 2024 | 418.87x | 0% |
| Citichem India | SME | 3 January 2025 | 414.40x | 0% |
| Z-Tech India | SME | 5 June 2024 | 371.46x | -9.09% |
| Sona Machinery | SME | 13 March 2024 | 273.57x | -12.59% |
| Paluck Technologies | SME | 4 September 2026 | 271.72x | -2.50% |
| GSM Foils | SME | 31 May 2024 | 253.32x | 0% |
| Rajnandini Fashion | SME | 3 June 2026 | 203.82x | 0% |
| Onyx Biotec | SME | 22 November 2024 | 198.08x | -11.39% |
| Asston Pharmaceuticals | SME | 16 July 2025 | 186.66x | -3.25% |
| GB Logistics | SME | 31 January 2025 | 185.31x | -20% |
| Transvoy Logistics | SME | 2 February 2023 | 174.50x | 0% |
| Sampat Aluminium | SME | 24 September 2025 | 169.30x | 0% |
| Barflex Polyfilms | SME | 20 January 2025 | 151.56x | 0% |
| Italian Edibles | SME | 12 February 2024 | 149.05x | -19.12% |
| Malpani Pipes | SME | 4 February 2025 | 147.20x | -4.56% |
| Phoenix Overseas | SME | 27 September 2024 | 121.18x | 0% |
| Davin Sons Retail | SME | 9 January 2025 | 120.85x | -20% |
| Jeyyam Global Foods | SME | 9 September 2024 | 119.51x | 0% |
| Indo SMC | SME | 21 January 2026 | 110.57x | 0% |
| Cellecor Gadgets | SME | 28 September 2023 | 108.27x | 0% |
| Rays of Belief | Mainboard | 8 September 2026 | 107.71x | 0% |
| Bench Mark Infotech | SME | 5 October 2026 | 103.19x | 0% |
| NR Vandana Tex | SME | 4 June 2025 | 101.07x | 0% |
| Mobilise App Lab | SME | 2 March 2026 | 100.15x | -19.88% |
Limits
- Final subscription is only known when bidding closes, after the decision to apply has been made.
- Medians describe groups of IPOs; they do not predict a single listing.
- SME openings on NSE have been capped at 90% above the issue price since 4 July 2024, which holds down the top of the SME table.
- Mainboard data starts in 2018 and SME data in 2023. See the methodology.